← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Arles win | 25% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1426.80 | 1446.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.73 | 29.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |