← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 47% | 36% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Nantes win | 23% | 33% | 4.20 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Monaco FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1508.58 | 1459.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.01 | -20.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |