← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedan win | 37% | 31% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Laval win | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Laval | Sedan |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 645.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1418.39 | 1510.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.63 | 7.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 37.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |