← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 42% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Tours win | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1447.88 | 1455.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.16 | 16.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.47 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |