← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 51% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Amiens win | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 638.00 | 2829.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1427.17 | 1372.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.59 | -20.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |