← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Tue, Mar 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 45% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +11% |
| Le Mans FC win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1000.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1433.18 | 1454.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.83 | -18.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |