← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 44% | 37% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Clermont win | 26% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1452.28 | 1505.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.18 | -13.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |