← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 47% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Metz win | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1208.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1501.45 | 1445.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.15 | -6.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |