← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 40% | 49% | 2.38 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Istres win | 29% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 631.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1432.45 | 1471.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.58 | 27.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |