← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 43% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Arles win | 25% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.98 | 1564.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.88 | 35.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 35.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.96 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |