← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 39% | 45% | 2.40 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Reims win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 992.00 | 1204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1481.18 | 1489.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | -38.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |