← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 41% | 52% | 2.30 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Istres win | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 624.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1508.07 | 1468.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.46 | 33.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |