← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 73% | 29% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 34% | 5.00 | value: +71% ⚠ |
| Nimes win | 9% | 37% | 11.00 | value: +308% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | 845.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1379.97 | 1498.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.51 | 14.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 37.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.65 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |