← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 69% | 54% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 30% | 4.75 | value: +41% |
| Nantes win | 10% | 16% | 10.00 | value: +62% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 695.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1508.57 | 1427.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.71 | 17.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 59.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |