← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 51% | 38% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +16% |
| Laval win | 21% | 27% | 4.50 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1379.22 | 1452.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.20 | -2.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |