← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 51% | 36% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +18% |
| Le Havre AC win | 21% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 535.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1419.50 | 1423.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.18 | -49.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |