← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Mon, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 59% | 45% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.60 | value: +25% |
| Laval win | 14% | 20% | 7.00 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 684.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1507.61 | 1465.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.29 | 17.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 56.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |