← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 39% | 28% | 2.50 | fair |
| Istres win | 31% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Istres | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1437.85 | 1462.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.92 | 17.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |