← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evian Thonon Gaillard win | 59% | 60% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +7% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 17% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Evian Thonon Gaillard | ES Troyes AC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1539.58 | 1387.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.76 | -32.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 58.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.34 | -1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |