← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Tue, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 35% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
| Le Mans FC win | 34% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1395.96 | 1498.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.33 | 3.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |