← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Tue, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 41% | 29% | 2.25 | fair |
| Tours win | 30% | 44% | 3.20 | value: +40% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tours | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.76 | 1536.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.46 | 24.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.62 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |