← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 43% | 54% | 2.20 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Nantes win | 27% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.39 | 1426.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.72 | 10.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |