← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Mon, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 44% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3220.00 | 813.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1520.60 | 1480.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.31 | 0.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 48.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.61 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |