← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 50% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +11% |
| Metz win | 20% | 21% | 4.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 660.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1504.18 | 1444.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | -9.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 49.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |