← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 44% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +9% |
| Istres win | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 260.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1401.27 | 1458.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.66 | 7.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 28.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.41 |
| state index | -1.28 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |