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Le Mans FC 0–0 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2004-05 Β· Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Mans FC win57%1.57
Draw28%3.25
Guingamp win15%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Mans FCGuingamp
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2866.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1591.911499.97
elo momentum (last 5)40.0425.59
form points (last 5)12.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
league points62.0048.00
league rank2.009.00
matches since blank8.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg1.821.41
state index1.140.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60