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FC St. Pauli 1910 0–0 Duisburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2018 Β· Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win52%1.85
Draw28%3.44
Duisburg win20%4.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
3On target0
8Corners0
16Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Duisburg
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)1.603.40
coach days483.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.121.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.40
elo1490.571404.91
elo momentum (last 5)-35.823.15
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
league points46.0021.00
league rank4.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
rest days13.0020.00
scorer concentration0.17β€”
season ppg1.700.84
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.60
squad age26.27β€”
state index-0.58-0.44
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40