← EFL League Two 2005-06 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P Taylor
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Grimsby win | 51% | 65% | 1.80 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 26% | 10% | 3.50 | fair |
| Northampton win | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.