← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 35% | 32% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 516.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1477.45 | 1525.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.18 | 33.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |