← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42% | 22% | 2.35 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 34% | 54% | 2.91 | value: +56% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1049.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1419.87 | 1601.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.05 | -28.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.88 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |