← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 42% | 55% | 2.33 | value: +28% |
| Duisburg win | 33% | 17% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.92 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.44 | 1602.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.26 | -3.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.03 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |