← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 44% | 51% | 2.22 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 27% | 21% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2936.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1506.41 | 1395.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.72 | -18.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 46.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |