← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +4% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1042.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.69 | 1428.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.92 | -9.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |