← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 53% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +4% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 21% | 27% | 4.58 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 68.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1388.17 | 1357.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.22 | -57.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| state index | -1.08 | -1.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |