← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 28% | 33% | 3.47 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1156.00 | 3164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.13 | 1500.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.86 | -5.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |