← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 41% | 30% | 2.39 | fair |
| Greuther Furth win | 31% | 39% | 3.16 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2001.00 | 1150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.05 | 1483.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.55 | 34.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |