← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.16 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 21% | 20% | 4.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 539.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1602.57 | 1534.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.71 | 27.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |