← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 35% | 43% | 2.76 | value: +19% |
| Bielefeld win | 34% | 26% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1994.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1426.94 | 1490.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.08 | -24.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |