← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 42% | 33% | 2.31 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 31% | 39% | 3.14 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 487.00 | 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1491.49 | 1538.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.78 | 7.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 46.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.62 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |