← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 37% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 32% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1507.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1521.07 | 1613.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.77 | 24.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.93 |
| state index | 0.18 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |