← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 42% | 29% | 2.33 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 29% | 39% | 3.34 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.38 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1402.24 | 1396.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.63 | -15.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |