← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 61% | 66% | 1.59 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.09 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 15% | 13% | 6.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1592.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1668.93 | 1495.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.20 | -2.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.64 |
| state index | 1.26 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |