← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 65% | 54% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +18% |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 15% | 22% | 6.65 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 495.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1529.98 | 1403.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.97 | -30.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.30 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |