← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 22% | 26% | 4.37 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frankfurt FSV | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 519.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1414.51 | 1619.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.52 | 49.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.96 |
| state index | -1.03 | 1.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |