← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1979.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1406.99 | 1412.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.94 | -29.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |