← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Mon, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 56% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 17% | 17% | 5.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1572.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1657.80 | 1516.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.57 | -7.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.35 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |