← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 42% | 36% | 2.34 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 29% | 33% | 3.34 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 505.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1607.51 | 1608.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.86 | 23.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 2.15 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |