← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 40% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.38 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1966.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1416.81 | 1404.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.49 | -26.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 24.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |