← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 35% | 41% | 2.80 | value: +16% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 35% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 18.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1401.52 | 1491.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.02 | -50.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |