← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 52% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
| Frankfurt FSV win | 21% | 21% | 4.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Frankfurt FSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3121.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1505.88 | 1410.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.63 | 1.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |